New York Mets at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets rallied past the Atlanta Braves 7-6 in ten innings at Truist Park on July 6, 2026, overcoming a game that the DiamondIQ model had opened with a 70 percent pre-game win probability in favor of the home team. Atlanta held leads through much of the contest, carrying that edge into the ninth inning with closer Raisel Iglesias on the mound, but Juan Soto erased it in a single swing. Soto's ninth-inning home run off Iglesias shifted win probability by 78.6 percentage points in New York's favor, the single largest swing of the game, and served as the turning point that forced extra innings. Matt Olson answered in the bottom of the ninth with a home run off Devin Williams, a swing worth 44.1 percentage points, keeping Atlanta alive and sending the game to the tenth.

New York ultimately seized control in the top of the tenth when Luis Torrens doubled off Owen Murphy, a hit that added 50.9 percentage points of win probability and put the Mets ahead by two runs. Atlanta narrowed the gap in the bottom half when Jorge Mateo drew a walk off Luke Weaver, a play worth 16.0 percentage points, but the Braves could not complete the comeback. On the mound, Tyler Kinley led New York's relievers with a WPA of plus-10.8, while Cionel Pérez and Dylan Lee contributed plus-9.0 and plus-8.5 respectively for the Braves despite the loss. A Bo Bichette double play in the seventh, which cost New York 15.6 percentage points, represented the Mets' most damaging offensive moment before Soto's heroics rendered it irrelevant. Soto finished as the game's most valuable individual with a cumulative WPA of plus-83.7 and an RE24 of plus-3.3, while Torrens posted plus-50.9 WPA and plus-1.8 RE24 to cement his role in the deciding rally.