Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago White Sox held on to defeat the Cleveland Guardians 7-6 at Progressive Field on July 5, 2026, in a game that Cleveland led early before Chicago seized control through the middle innings and refused to relinquish it. The White Sox scored in three of the first three innings, highlighted by a three-run third, while the Guardians answered with a three-run fifth but could not fully close the gap. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Cleveland a 53 percent win probability, but that figure ultimately fell to zero as Chicago's bullpen locked things down.

The decisive swings in win probability centered on Gabriel Arias, who paradoxically did the most to shape both sides of the outcome. His fifth-inning home run off Erick Fedde added 24.3 percent to Cleveland's win probability at that moment, fueling the Guardians' comeback bid. But it was Arias who then struck out against Sean Newcomb to end the ninth inning, a moment that registered as the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus-31.6 percent in Chicago's favor. That final out effectively sealed the contest after Kahlil Watson's flyout in the eighth off Newcomb had already deflated Cleveland's chances by 23.3 percent. Colson Montgomery's home run off Tanner Bibee in the third added 16.7 percent for Chicago, providing the early cushion that proved critical.

Arias finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-52.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.0, a figure that reflects his outsized influence on the game's run-environment swings. Montgomery contributed plus-11.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.3, while Miguel Vargas added plus-9.9 percent WPA and plus-1.2 RE24 for Chicago. On the mound, Erik Sabrowski led White Sox relievers with plus-10.2 percent WPA, followed by Tim Herrin at plus-9.5 percent and Trevor Richards at plus-8.8 percent, a collective bullpen effort that ultimately held a one-run lead through the game's final frames.