Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners posted an 11-0 shutout over the Toronto Blue Jays on July 4, 2026, at T-Mobile Park, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a 58 percent home win probability into a 100 percent certainty well before the game reached its midpoint. Seattle scored in just three innings — the second, fifth, and sixth — but did so with enough force to eliminate any suspense, plating five runs in the second inning alone and adding four more in the sixth. Toronto managed a single hit across nine innings with an error compounding the futility, while Seattle went 11 for 11 in runs-to-hits efficiency in their productive frames.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the second, where Randy Arozarena's home run off Shane Bieber delivered the game's single biggest swing, adding 18.2 percent to Seattle's win probability. Victor Robles followed with a single that contributed another 6.9 percent, and Cal Raleigh's groundout still pushed the probability forward by 7.8 percent in the context of a crooked-number inning. Dominic Canzone added a home run off Bieber in the fifth for a further 2.5 percent swing. Bieber absorbed the bulk of the damage as the opposing starter, surrendering runs in multiple innings.

Arozarena finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a cumulative WPA of plus 19.4 percent and a RE24 of plus 4.1, reflecting both his direct run production and the broader run-environment damage he inflicted. Robles and Raleigh contributed plus 6.6 and plus 5.0 percent in WPA respectively, with Raleigh also generating a RE24 of plus 2.0. On the pitching side, Logan Gilbert led all arms with a WPA of plus 8.6 percent, anchoring a performance that held Toronto hitless through most of the contest and complemented the offense's dominant afternoon. The model leans toward Seattle having been a well-calibrated pregame favorite whose margin of victory ultimately far exceeded what even a 58 percent probability implied.