Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 1 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds handed the Milwaukee Brewers a 7-2 defeat at American Family Field on July 2, 2026, a result that stood in stark contrast to the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 69 percent Milwaukee win probability. The Reds did the bulk of their damage in the fourth inning, when Jose Trevino connected on a home run off Jacob Misiorowski that swung win probability 21.1 points in Cincinnati's favor and effectively broke the game open. TJ Friedl added an insurance shot in the seventh, a home run off Grant Anderson worth another 7.1 points of win probability, pushing the Brewers beyond any realistic path to recovery. Cincinnati finished with 11 hits against Milwaukee's four, and the model's estimate moved to zero percent for the home side by the final out.
The Brewers had opportunities to keep pace early but could not capitalize. Sal Frelick grounded into a double play in the second inning that cost Milwaukee 11.5 points of win probability, and William Contreras struck out to end the first with the bases in play, a swing of 8.0 points against the home club. Brice Turang's double in the sixth added 9.5 points for Milwaukee and represented the team's best individual play of the night, but by that point the deficit was already substantial, and the Brewers finished with just two runs on four hits.
Chase Burns was the story on the mound, posting a game-high 24.8 points of win probability added among pitchers while keeping Milwaukee's lineup largely in check. Jose Trevino led all hitters with a 24.1 WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.1, reflecting the outsized run-environment value of his fourth-inning swing. Eugenio Suárez contributed a 10.5 WPA despite a slightly negative RE24 of minus-0.2, and Brice Turang's 11.9 WPA stood as Milwaukee's lone bright spot in an otherwise lopsided outcome.