Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Cincinnati Reds 4-2 on July 1, 2026, at American Family Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate beginning at a 70 percent home win probability and closing at 100 percent. Milwaukee scored in the first and seventh innings, while Cincinnati managed its only two runs in the second, finishing with matching hit totals of eight apiece but committing two errors to the Brewers' none. The game was largely a pitching-dominated affair through the middle frames, with neither team crossing the plate between the third and sixth innings.

The decisive swings in win probability came from a handful of critical moments. In the top of the sixth, Tyler Stephenson grounded into a double play off Shane Drohan, a sequence that cost Cincinnati 19.4 percentage points of win probability and represented the single most damaging play of the game for the Reds. Eugenio Suárez had partially offset earlier damage with a double off Drohan in that same frame, adding 12.8 points to Cincinnati's chances, but the rally ultimately stalled. Milwaukee then put the game away in the bottom of the seventh when Garrett Mitchell ripped a triple off Brock Burke, swinging win probability 17.6 points in Milwaukee's favor and sparking the two-run inning that extended the lead. A Gary Sánchez walk in that same inning added another 11.1 points. Sal Stewart's double play groundout off Abner Uribe in the top of the eighth, costing Cincinnati 13.8 points, effectively sealed matters.

Garrett Mitchell was Milwaukee's most impactful performer, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-25.1 and an RE24 of plus-1.8, anchoring the decisive seventh-inning rally. On the pitching side, Andrew Abbott led all pitchers with a plus-22.6 WPA, while Abner Uribe contributed plus-15.2 in relief. For Cincinnati, Eugenio Suárez posted the team's best offensive WPA at plus-10.2, though the Reds' inability to convert on Drohan proved fatal to their chances.