Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers pulled away from the Cincinnati Reds on June 30, 2026, at American Family Field, winning 7-2 in a game that was largely decided by a four-run fourth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the game favoring Milwaukee with a 69 percent home win probability, and that estimate climbed steadily to 100 percent by the final out, reflecting how thoroughly the Brewers controlled the contest after the middle innings. Cincinnati managed just six hits and never seriously threatened after scoring its lone first-inning run, while Milwaukee posted 14 hits across a balanced offensive effort.

The fourth inning was the decisive stretch, and Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick were the catalysts. Mitchell's single in the frame added 7.9 percent to Milwaukee's win probability, and Frelick followed with a single of his own that pushed the needle another 8.7 percent — the single largest win-probability swing of the game. Reds starter Rhett Lowder bore the brunt of the damage throughout, as every significant play in either direction ran through him. A pair of strikeouts Lowder generated in the second — David Hamilton going down for a swing of minus-8.5 percent and Brice Turang for minus-7.5 percent — briefly slowed the Brewers, but Milwaukee's lineup eventually broke through in a four-run burst that effectively ended the competitive portion of the evening.

Mitchell finished as the game's top performer by win-probability added, accumulating plus-15.3 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.5 across his contributions at the plate. Frelick was close behind at plus-9.9 percent WPA and plus-1.2 RE24, while Jake Bauers added plus-8.3 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.3. On the mound, Chad Patrick led Milwaukee's pitching staff with plus-4.5 percent WPA, followed by Brandon Sproat at plus-2.3 percent and Jared Koenig at plus-1.9 percent, as the trio combined to keep Cincinnati's offense quiet through the game's final stages.