Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds overcame a first-inning Pittsburgh deficit to defeat the Pirates 6-4 at PNC Park on June 26, 2026, handing the home side a loss the DiamondIQ model had estimated as unlikely from the outset. Pittsburgh entered with a 56% pre-game win probability, but that edge eroded quickly when Cincinnati plated four runs in the second inning to seize control. The Pirates clawed back with a pair of home runs in the bottom of the sixth off Andrew Abbott, one from Esmerlyn Valdez that shifted win probability 15.3 points in Pittsburgh's favor and another from Marcell Ozuna worth 13.8 points, pulling the game close and briefly threatening a full momentum reversal.

The decisive blow came in the top of the eighth, when Noelvi Marte launched a home run off Mason Montgomery that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 31.7 points, pushing Cincinnati's probability to a level Pittsburgh could not recover from. The Pirates managed nine hits on the night but were unable to convert in the moments that mattered most, including a Bryan Reynolds lineout in the bottom of the ninth against Caleb Ferguson that, despite carrying 12.0 points of potential swing, ended the threat. Henry Davis's forceout in the second inning against Abbott was the costliest sequence for Pittsburgh early, negating what could have been a rally and costing the home side 10.3 points of win probability.

Marte was the game's most impactful offensive performer, finishing with a plus 31.7% WPA and plus 1.7 RE24. Ozuna contributed a plus 20.7% WPA and plus 1.3 RE24 in a losing effort, and Valdez added plus 11.9% WPA for Pittsburgh. On the mound, Cincinnati's bullpen carried the late work effectively, with Pierce Johnson leading all pitchers at plus 14.4% WPA, followed by Isaac Mattson at plus 8.3% and Brock Burke at plus 7.6%, securing the final two outs and preserving the two-run victory.