Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers shut out the Cincinnati Reds 2-0 at Great American Ball Park on June 23, 2026, holding Cincinnati to just two hits and capitalizing on two Reds errors. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Cincinnati entering the night as the more likely winner at 39% home win probability, but that figure steadily eroded before reaching 0% by the final out. Milwaukee scattered its damage across two late innings, scoring once in the sixth and once in the eighth while Brandon Sproat and a pair of relievers kept the Reds lineup quiet throughout.

The decisive moment came in the top of the sixth, when Jake Bauers laced a triple off Caleb Ferguson that shifted win probability 16.3 points in Milwaukee's favor, the single largest swing of the game. The eighth inning was a study in contrasts for Cincinnati: Nathaniel Lowe gave the Reds a brief flicker of hope with a single off Abner Uribe that moved the needle 8.9 points toward the home side, but Noelvi Marte immediately erased it by grounding into a double play, a sequence that swung win probability 14.4 points back toward Milwaukee. Blake Dunn's flyout to end the ninth in the bottom of the frame registered a 14.4-point swing as well, reflecting just how thoroughly Milwaukee had locked down the lead by that point.

Brandon Sproat was the game's most impactful arm, finishing with a plus-24.3% WPA, while Nick Lodolo posted a plus-21.4% WPA in a losing effort for Cincinnati, keeping the Reds competitive despite the final margin. On the offensive side, Andrew Vaughn led Milwaukee's batters with a plus-8.7% WPA and plus-0.4 RE24, with Bauers and Brice Turang also contributing meaningfully at plus-7.5% and plus-5.7% WPA respectively. The two Cincinnati errors proved compounding in a game where runs were extraordinarily scarce, and the model leans toward Milwaukee's pitching and defensive efficiency as the defining factor in the outcome.