MLB Recap · June 20, 2026

Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

CIN10
Final
NYY2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CIN00204004010153
NYY100000010281

The Story

The Cincinnati Reds handed the New York Yankees a lopsided 10-2 defeat at Yankee Stadium on June 20, 2026, a result that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a New York win collapsing from 67 percent before first pitch all the way to zero. Cincinnati's offense built its advantage methodically, breaking through in the third inning before delivering the decisive blows in the fifth, and the Reds' pitching staff never allowed the Yankees a path back into the contest. Cincinnati finished with 15 hits against New York's 8, and while the Reds committed three errors compared to the Yankees' one, their offensive output rendered those miscues inconsequential.

The game's single most impactful moment came in the top of the fifth when Spencer Steer launched a home run off Will Warren that swung win probability by plus-20.6 percent in Cincinnati's favor, extending what had already become a commanding lead. That blow followed Sal Stewart's double off Warren in the third, which had added plus-17.7 percent to the Reds' win probability and set the tone for the offensive outburst. JJ Bleday contributed a double of his own in the fifth off Warren worth plus-8.6 percent, piling on further damage. Will Warren absorbed the brunt of Cincinnati's attack across those pivotal innings, and the Yankees' best moment came only in the bottom of the fifth when Paul Goldschmidt's strikeout against Andrew Abbott briefly nudged New York's odds by minus-5.3 percent from the Reds' perspective.

Sal Stewart led all players with a WPA of plus-22.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-3.8, making him the single most consequential bat in the game by the DiamondIQ model's accounting. Steer followed with plus-16.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.6, while Edwin Arroyo added plus-8.5 percent WPA and plus-1.2 RE24 to round out Cincinnati's standout offensive contributors. On the mound, Andrew Abbott was the Reds' most valuable arm at plus-16.1 percent WPA, with Tejay Antone contributing plus-7.6 percent in relief. The model leans heavily on starting pitching performance as a driver of outcomes, and Abbott's dominance in suppressing a Yankees lineup that entered the evening as substantial favorites underscored how thoroughly Cincinnati controlled the evening from the third inning forward.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CIN bats firstFinalNYY win %CIN win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 66.9% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Spencer Steer Home Run
Top 5th · off Will Warren
+20.6%
Sal Stewart Double
Top 3rd · off Will Warren
+17.7%
JJ Bleday Double
Top 5th · off Will Warren
+8.6%
Paul Goldschmidt Strikeout
Bot 5th · off Andrew Abbott
-5.3%
JJ Bleday Lineout
Top 3rd · off Will Warren
-5.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Sal Stewart+22.3%+3.8 RE24
Spencer Steer+16.0%+1.6 RE24
Edwin Arroyo+8.5%+1.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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