Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago White Sox handed the New York Yankees a 5-1 defeat at Yankee Stadium on June 18, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 62 percent pre-game win probability for New York and running that figure all the way to zero by the final out. The game was a pitcher's duel through seven innings, with the lone run coming in the bottom of the third when Ryan McMahon connected for a home run off Sean Burke, a swing worth plus 11.0 percent in win probability that briefly gave New York its only lead of the evening. Burke, however, was the story of the pitching staff, finishing as the top pitcher by WPA at plus 29.6 percent, absorbing that early setback while keeping the Yankees close enough for a comeback that never materialized.

The game broke open decisively in the top of the eighth inning in a sequence that rendered the outcome essentially final. Andrew Benintendi delivered the critical blow, a home run off Camilo Doval that represented the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 31.5 percent, turning a narrow deficit into a lead Chicago would not relinquish. Sam Antonacci followed with a double off Fernando Cruz worth plus 11.2 percent, and Tristan Peters added to the damage after being hit by a pitch from Tim Hill, a play that carried plus 9.4 percent in win probability. The four-run eighth inning was the product of three consecutive relievers failing to strand the Chicago offense, and it converted what had been a competitive game into a lopsided final.

Beyond Benintendi's game-changing performance, Colson Montgomery contributed plus 7.3 percent in WPA with a plus 1.2 RE24, rounding out a balanced White Sox offensive effort. Ryan Weathers added plus 14.6 percent in WPA from the mound, complementing Burke's strong start and Bryan Hudson's plus 5.5 percent contribution out of the bullpen. McMahon's fifth-inning strikeout against Burke, which subtracted 8.6 percent from New York's win probability, encapsulated the Yankees' inability to build on their third-inning advantage and ultimately sealed a night that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected as a near-certain Chicago victory by the final pitch.