Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| CHC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-4 at Wrigley Field on June 15, 2026, in a game that turned dramatically in the late innings. Chicago entered with a 68 percent pre-game win probability according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate, and while that edge held in the end, the path to victory was far from straightforward. Colorado seized the lead with a stunning top-eighth rally, and the Cubs were forced to answer in the bottom half and then again in the ninth to secure the walk-off win.
The decisive swing came in the top of the eighth, when Cole Carrigg launched a home run off Caleb Thielbar that shifted win probability by 50.7 percentage points in Colorado's favor, erasing what had been a narrow Cubs lead and pushing the DiamondIQ model's estimate sharply toward the Rockies. Chicago responded immediately in the bottom of the eighth, though a Michael Busch strikeout against Juan Mejia cost the Cubs 22.1 percentage points of win probability and left the game unresolved heading to the ninth. From there, Pedro Ramírez delivered a pivotal single off Seth Halvorsen worth 22.8 percentage points, setting the stage for Ian Happ's walk-off fielder's choice that closed out a 33.1-point swing and brought the model's estimate to 100 percent. Matt Shaw's triple off Antonio Senzatela in the sixth, which added 16.7 percentage points, had earlier helped Chicago establish its initial advantage.
Carrigg finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-60.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-3.3, making him the most impactful offensive player despite being on the losing side. Ramírez contributed plus-31.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.1 in the Cubs' comeback, while Pete Crow-Armstrong added plus-22.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.1 to support the winning effort. On the mound, Michael Lorenzen led Chicago's staff with plus-20.3 percent WPA, followed by Shota Imanaga at plus-18.4 percent and Jaden Hill at plus-8.7 percent. Colorado finished with a fielding error that contributed to their undoing, while Chicago's clean defensive performance left no such openings for the visitors to exploit.