New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds handled the New York Mets decisively at Great American Ball Park on June 15, 2026, winning 12-0 in a game that was largely decided within the first two innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the game favoring the Reds at 57% and reached 100% by the final out, with the bulk of that probability swing coming early as Cincinnati piled on six runs in the second inning alone to extend a three-run first-inning lead to nine.

The most consequential sequence of the game unfolded in the bottom of the second, where Noelvi Marte delivered a flyout credited with a +10.4% win-probability swing, the single largest play of the game by that measure. That figure reflects the run-scoring context of the at-bat rather than a conventional productive out, underscoring just how loaded the situation was for Cincinnati at that point. Eugenio Suárez added a home run off Jonathan Pintaro in the same inning for +5.3%, building on an earlier solo shot off Tobias Myers in the first that carried a +4.3% impact. On the other side, Brett Baty's strikeout against Chase Burns in the top of the second registered as a -6.5% swing for New York, a moment that effectively ended any realistic path back for the Mets.

Marte finished as the game's top performer by WPA at +15.3%, while Suárez backed his two-home-run effort with a +9.6% WPA and a RE24 of +4.9, indicating substantial run-environment value above expectation. Sal Stewart contributed a modest +3.0% WPA on the pitching side. Chase Burns led all pitchers at +7.7% WPA, as the Reds' staff combined to hold the Mets to six hits and no runs across nine innings. New York's pitching staff, by contrast, allowed all 12 runs through a steady erosion in the game's opening two frames.