MLB Recap · June 14, 2026

Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

CHC1
Final
SF5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CHC000000010170
SF00003011-591

The Story

The San Francisco Giants handed the Chicago Cubs a 5-1 defeat at Oracle Park on June 14, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a San Francisco win climbing from 43 percent before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. The game remained scoreless through four innings before the Giants broke it open in the bottom of the fifth, a frame that proved decisive. Matt Chapman delivered the pivotal blow, a home run off Cubs starter Colin Rea that swung win probability by 20.0 percentage points in San Francisco's favor. Jung Hoo Lee followed with a single that added another 4.3 percentage points, and Drew Gilbert extended the inning further with a double worth 7.9 percentage points. The Giants plated three runs in that fifth inning and never relinquished control, adding a run in the seventh and another in the eighth to set the final margin.

Logan Webb was the story on the mound, posting a team-best plus-35.7 percent WPA as he neutralized the Cubs lineup throughout his outing. The only notable Chicago threat came in the top of the sixth, when Pete Crow-Armstrong singled off Webb for a 4.5 percentage point swing, though that momentum went no further. Cubs reliever Ryan Rolison and Caleb Kilian contributed marginal positive WPA figures of plus-1.0 and plus-0.7 respectively in their appearances, but the damage had already been done by the time Rea exited. A Willy Adames flyout to end the fourth inning, costing the Cubs 6.6 percentage points of win probability, illustrated how close San Francisco came to extending its lead even earlier than the fifth.

Chapman finished as the game's top offensive performer by a significant margin, posting plus-16.9 percent WPA and plus-2.3 RE24 on the strength of his home run. Lee and Gilbert rounded out the Giants' top contributors at plus-7.8 and plus-4.3 percent WPA respectively. Chicago managed seven hits on the night but could not string them together against Webb, leaving San Francisco with a convincing win in a game the DiamondIQ model had initially framed as nearly a coin flip.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CHC bats firstFinalSF win %CHC win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 42.8% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Matt Chapman Home Run
Bot 5th · off Colin Rea
+20.0%
Drew Gilbert Double
Bot 5th · off Colin Rea
+7.9%
Willy Adames Flyout
Bot 4th · off Colin Rea
-6.6%
Top 6th · off Logan Webb
+4.5%
Jung Hoo Lee Single
Bot 5th · off Colin Rea
+4.3%

Top Batters by WPA

Matt Chapman+16.9%+2.3 RE24
Jung Hoo Lee+7.8%+0.2 RE24
Drew Gilbert+4.3%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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