Seattle Mariners at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners rolled to a 10-2 victory over the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on June 12, 2026, turning what opened as a near coin-flip into a rout that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had reaching a 0% home win probability by the final out. The game turned decisively in the top of the second inning, when Seattle sent a wave of damage through the Washington pitching staff, scoring five runs in the frame. Julio Rodríguez contributed a groundout that shifted win probability 9.7 points in Seattle's favor, and Dominic Canzone followed with a triple off Zack Littell worth 8.7 percentage points of win probability. The Nationals had a chance to keep pace in the bottom half, but Daylen Lile's strikeout against Bryce Miller cost Washington 11.1 points of win probability — the single most damaging play of the game in either direction. Seattle added three more in the fifth on Luke Raley's single off Riley Cornelio, a hit that swung win probability another 8.8 points toward the visitors, and the outcome was effectively sealed long before the final innings.

Individually, the numbers pointed sharply toward Seattle's contributors. Raley finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-11.1% with a RE24 of plus-2.6, while Rodríguez posted plus-10.8% WPA across his efforts. Canzone added plus-8.1% WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.5. On the mound, Bryce Miller was the dominant force, accumulating plus-17.0% WPA while limiting Washington to a James Wood solo home run in the fourth as the lone meaningful threat. Relievers Michael Rucker and Gus Varland each finished at plus-0.0% WPA, handling the late innings without incident. Seattle finished with 11 hits and no errors, while Washington managed just four hits against a pitching staff that gave the DiamondIQ model little reason to favor the home side past the second inning.