San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 19 | 0 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The San Francisco Giants routed the Chicago Cubs 18-3 at Wrigley Field on June 5, 2026, in a game that was never as competitive as the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate suggested. The model opened with a 65 percent home win probability for Chicago, but San Francisco dismantled that projection methodically, swinging it to zero by the final out. The Giants did their most decisive damage in two explosive innings, plating six runs in the fourth and seven more in the sixth to turn what had been a 2-0 game into an insurmountable rout. San Francisco finished with 19 hits and committed no errors, while Chicago managed just eight hits and likewise played clean in the field.
The single biggest win-probability swing of the night came in the top of the fourth, when Matt Chapman connected for a home run off Edward Cabrera, a swing the DiamondIQ model registered at plus-17.1 percent win probability added. That blow was the fulcrum of the game, breaking it open at a moment when Chicago still theoretically had a path back. Chapman finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-16.5 percent, pairing that with a RE24 of plus-5.1 that reflected just how much run value he generated in high-leverage situations. On the Chicago side, the model flagged two early outs as particularly damaging to the Cubs' own cause: Dansby Swanson's pop out in the second inning cost Chicago minus-10.4 percent win probability, and Ian Happ's pop out to lead off the first subtracted another minus-9.4 percent, both off Robbie Ray, who squandered no opportunities.
Robbie Ray was the story on the mound, earning the top pitching WPA of the night at plus-28.1 percent, a figure that underscores how thoroughly he neutralized a Cubs lineup that entered as a favorite. Daniel Susac contributed offensively with a WPA of plus-6.7 percent despite a slightly negative RE24, and Willy Adames rounded out the Giants' top performers with plus-4.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-4.7. Phil Maton and Dylan Smith each recorded plus-0.0 percent WPA in relief, holding the line as San Francisco coasted through the final innings of a decisive road win.