MLB Recap · May 27, 2026

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

STL1
Final
MIL2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
STL000100000182
MIL00000002-230

The Story

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 2-1 on May 27, 2026, at American Family Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate beginning at a 63 percent home win probability and closing at 100 percent after an eighth-inning rally settled the outcome. St. Louis had managed to scratch across a run in the top of the fourth when Bryan Torres hit a triple off Chad Patrick, a sequence that shifted win probability by 13.3 percentage points in the Cardinals' favor and represented their most consequential offensive moment of the night. Despite collecting eight hits to Milwaukee's three, the Cardinals' two errors proved costly, and they were unable to push across another run against a Brewers pitching staff that otherwise kept them quiet through nine innings.

The game turned decisively in the bottom of the eighth against Cardinals reliever JoJo Romero. A fielding error on Jackson Chourio's batted ball was the single largest swing of the contest, adding 26.1 percentage points of win probability to Milwaukee's side and opening the door for the Brewers' two-run frame. Christian Yelich followed with a single worth 14.0 percentage points, extending the threat, though Andrew Vaughn's strikeout temporarily pushed the probability back in St. Louis's direction by 14.0 points. Garrett Mitchell had also contributed a double off Dustin May worth 13.4 percentage points earlier in the inning sequence, helping construct the rally that proved to be the final margin.

Among individual performers, Chourio led all batters with a WPA of plus-21.6 and an RE24 of plus-0.7, while Mitchell and Yelich added plus-8.0 and plus-7.9 WPA respectively. On the pitching side, Dustin May paced Milwaukee's staff with a WPA of plus-21.7, followed by Trevor Megill at plus-15.2 and Aaron Ashby at plus-14.0, a trio that collectively held St. Louis to one run across a game in which the Cardinals' hit total suggested a closer result than the final score indicated.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025STL bats firstFinalMIL win %STL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 62.5% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jackson Chourio Field Error
Bot 8th · off JoJo Romero
+26.1%
Christian Yelich Single
Bot 8th · off JoJo Romero
+14.0%
Andrew Vaughn Strikeout
Bot 8th · off JoJo Romero
-14.0%
Garrett Mitchell Double
Bot 8th · off Dustin May
+13.4%
Bryan Torres Triple
Top 4th · off Chad Patrick
+13.3%

Top Batters by WPA

Jackson Chourio+21.6%+0.7 RE24
Garrett Mitchell+8.0%+0.1 RE24
Christian Yelich+7.9%-0.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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