Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds handed the New York Mets a decisive 7-2 defeat at Citi Field on May 25, 2026, building an insurmountable lead through the first four innings and never allowing the home side back into the game. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest giving the Mets a 42 percent chance of winning at home, but that figure collapsed steadily as Cincinnati stacked runs early and finished at zero percent by the final out.

The pivotal sequence came in the third and fourth innings, where the Reds effectively ended the competitive portion of the contest. JJ Bleday delivered the biggest single swing of the game, connecting for a home run off Nolan McLean in the third that shifted win probability by plus 9.2 percent in Cincinnati's favor. McLean continued to struggle in the fourth, surrendering a Nathaniel Lowe double worth plus 5.8 percent and a Spencer Steer single adding another plus 4.9 percent, as the Reds plated four runs in that frame alone. Lowe had already been a thorn in McLean's side as early as the second inning, drawing a walk that moved the needle plus 4.8 percent. On the other side of the ledger, a Nick Morabito strikeout against Nick Lodolo in the bottom of the second represented the Mets' most damaging moment at the plate, costing them 5.4 percent in win probability and underscoring how thoroughly Lodolo stifled New York's lineup.

Lowe finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer by WPA at plus 10.2 percent, pairing that with a plus 2.2 RE24, while Bleday added plus 6.1 percent and Tyler Stephenson contributed plus 5.7 percent with a plus 1.2 RE24. Lodolo was the clear story on the mound, generating plus 12.7 percent WPA across his outing, with Austin Warren and Tejay Antone completing the bullpen work quietly. Cincinnati's six hits proved far more efficient than New York's nine, as the Reds committed no errors against a Mets club that was equally clean defensively but simply could not generate timely contact.