MLB Recap · May 25, 2026

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

STL1
Final
MIL5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
STL000001000121
MIL30000110-5110

The Story

The Milwaukee Brewers handed the St. Louis Cardinals a 5-1 defeat at American Family Field on May 25, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model anticipated from the outset, assigning Milwaukee a 59 percent pre-game win probability that climbed to 100 percent by the final out. The game was effectively settled in the opening frame, when the Brewers struck for three runs in the bottom of the first against Matthew Liberatore, establishing a margin that St. Louis never seriously threatened. The Cardinals finished with just two hits and an error, while Milwaukee collected 11 hits across a balanced offensive effort.

Jacob Misiorowski was the central figure in the game, posting a model-leading plus-22.4 percent WPA for Milwaukee's pitching staff. He neutralized St. Louis bats throughout, with the single most damaging sequence of the game coming in the top of the second, when Bryan Torres struck out against him, a play that shifted win probability by negative 6.0 percent from the Cardinals' perspective and effectively extinguished any early comeback momentum. St. Louis managed only a brief flicker of life in the top of the sixth, when Pedro Pagés singled off Misiorowski to move the needle plus-4.5 percent, but the Cardinals could not convert that moment into anything consequential. Brycen Mautz inherited a deteriorating situation in the later innings, surrendering a Garrett Mitchell single in the sixth worth plus-4.2 percent and an Andrew Vaughn double in the seventh worth plus-4.1 percent.

Andrew Vaughn led all position players with a plus-8.1 percent WPA and plus-1.9 RE24, providing the clearest individual offensive contribution in Milwaukee's win. Luis Rengifo added plus-4.3 percent WPA and Garrett Mitchell contributed plus-3.0 percent, rounding out a Brewers lineup that made consistent contact and gave Misiorowski all the cushion he needed. Blake Perkins was thrown out stealing second in the bottom of the first, a play that shifted plus-4.3 percent toward St. Louis, though the Cardinals were unable to capitalize on that gift in any meaningful way.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025STL bats firstFinalMIL win %STL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 59.1% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Bryan Torres Strikeout
Top 2nd · off Jacob Misiorowski
-6.0%
Pedro Pagés Single
Top 6th · off Jacob Misiorowski
+4.5%
Blake Perkins Caught Stealing 2B
Bot 1st · off Matthew Liberatore
+4.3%
Garrett Mitchell Single
Bot 6th · off Brycen Mautz
+4.2%
Andrew Vaughn Double
Bot 7th · off Brycen Mautz
+4.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Andrew Vaughn+8.1%+1.9 RE24
Luis Rengifo+4.3%+0.2 RE24
Garrett Mitchell+3.0%+0.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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