St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals handed the Cincinnati Reds an 8-1 defeat at Great American Ball Park on May 22, 2026, and it was never particularly close after the early innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Cincinnati a 47% chance of winning at home, but that figure eroded steadily through the middle frames and reached 0% by the final out. St. Louis generated 12 hits against zero errors while Cincinnati managed just two hits and committed one error, a margin of dominance that reflected the Cardinals' control throughout.
The decisive stretch of the game arrived in the third and fourth innings. Alec Burleson's single off Chris Paddack in the third inning was the most impactful offensive play of the early going, shifting win probability by +10.9% in St. Louis's favor and setting the tone for the Cardinals' two-run frame. JJ Wetherholt followed with a single of his own in the fourth, adding +8.8% to St. Louis's win probability, though Iván Herrera's grounded-into-double-play in that same inning gave back 11.0% and briefly interrupted the Cardinals' momentum. Jordan Walker's home run off Connor Phillips in the seventh, worth +13.7% in win probability, was the single biggest swing of the game and effectively closed the door on any Reds rally. Cincinnati's lone bright spot came in the second inning when Nathaniel Lowe connected on a home run against Andre Pallante for a +7.4% swing, accounting for the club's only run of the afternoon.
From a performance standpoint, Burleson led all batters with a +12.9% WPA and a +1.0 RE24, while Walker finished close behind at +12.2% WPA and +0.8 RE24. Wetherholt contributed +9.8% WPA across his plate appearances. On the pitching side, Andre Pallante paced all pitchers with a +18.3% WPA despite surrendering the Lowe home run, with Sam Moll and Ryne Stanek adding +4.4% and +3.6%, respectively, in relief. The Cardinals' pitching staff held Cincinnati to two hits on the day, making the final margin a fair reflection of how thoroughly St. Louis handled the Reds.