MLB Recap · May 21, 2026

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

ATL9
Final
MIA3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
ATL2100210219130
MIA001100100360

The Story

The Atlanta Braves handed the Miami Marlins a 9-3 defeat at loanDepot park on May 21, 2026, building an early advantage and never relenting across nine innings. The DiamondIQ model had pegged Miami's pre-game win probability at just 29%, and by the final out that figure had fallen to zero, reflecting how thoroughly Atlanta controlled the contest. The Braves scattered their nine runs across seven different innings, compiling 13 hits without an error, while Miami managed only six hits in a forgettable home performance.

The game's most impactful individual sequence belonged to the Marlins' Kyle Stowers, who provided Miami's only genuine resistance with two home runs off Spencer Strider. His fourth-inning blast carried a win-probability swing of plus 11.3 percent, and he added another in the seventh worth plus 7.4 percent, finishing with a combined WPA of plus 17.0 and an RE24 of plus 1.5 — damage that kept Miami from being completely overrun early but could not overcome Atlanta's persistent scoring. Owen Caissie also connected for a home run off Strider in the third inning, adding plus 9.4 percent to Miami's win probability in that moment.

Atlanta's offensive engine was fueled most decisively by Mike Yastrzemski and Ronald Acuña Jr. Yastrzemski's sixth-inning double off Sandy Alcantara registered a plus 6.7 percent win-probability swing and led all Braves batters with a WPA of plus 14.8 and an RE24 of plus 2.2, making him the game's most analytically impactful offensive contributor. Acuña's fifth-inning single off Alcantara produced an 11.6 percent swing and a WPA of plus 10.2, helping extend Atlanta's lead at a critical juncture. On the mound, reliever Dylan Lee was the most effective arm of the evening by WPA at plus 7.0, keeping Miami at bay as Atlanta closed out a decisive road victory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025ATL bats firstFinalMIA win %ATL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 28.9% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Top 5th · off Sandy Alcantara
+11.6%
Kyle Stowers Home Run
Bot 4th · off Spencer Strider
+11.3%
Owen Caissie Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Spencer Strider
+9.4%
Kyle Stowers Home Run
Bot 7th · off Spencer Strider
+7.4%
Mike Yastrzemski Double
Top 6th · off Sandy Alcantara
+6.7%

Top Batters by WPA

Kyle Stowers+17.0%+1.5 RE24
Mike Yastrzemski+14.8%+2.2 RE24
Ronald Acuña Jr.+10.2%+1.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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