Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins defeated the Houston Astros 4-1 at Target Field on May 20, 2026, a game that was effectively decided in the fourth inning and never truly in doubt thereafter. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest already favoring the Twins at 61% and watched that probability climb steadily before reaching 100% by game's end. Houston managed just five hits and crossed the plate only once, in the second inning, while Minnesota's pitching staff held the Astros scoreless across seven of nine frames.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the fourth, when Ryan Kreidler connected on a home run off Mike Burrows that swung win probability by 28.0 percentage points, the single largest play of the game. That blow was the clearest turning point, transforming a closely contested contest into a comfortable Twins advantage. Burrows had already been touched for a Victor Caratini home run in the second inning, a swing worth 7.8 percentage points, so the Houston right-hander allowed both of Minnesota's extra-base damage plays. Houston's most meaningful offensive moments came late and fell short, as Cam Smith singled in the eighth to produce a 5.1-point swing, but Zach Cole's strikeout against Yoendrys Gómez in that same frame erased 4.5 points of Houston's dwindling comeback chances.

Kreidler finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, credited with a net WPA of plus 23.7% and a RE24 of plus 1.6. Caratini contributed a plus 6.7% WPA and plus 0.7 RE24, while Tristan Gray added plus 5.3% WPA and plus 0.8 RE24 to round out Minnesota's top offensive contributors. On the mound, Joe Ryan led all pitchers with a plus 12.6% WPA, supported by Yoendrys Gómez at plus 9.5% and Andrew Morris at plus 2.4%, a collective effort that gave the Twins staff full command from the second inning onward.