New York Mets at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 19 | 0 |
| WSH | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 3 |
The Story
The New York Mets defeated the Washington Nationals 16-7 on May 18, 2026, at Nationals Park in a game that stretched into extra innings before a decisive 10-run Mets outburst in the 12th inning sealed the outcome. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Washington holding a 57% pre-game win probability, a figure that eroded steadily across 12 innings and ultimately fell to 0% as New York pulled away in dramatic fashion. The Nationals committed three errors over the course of the game, a factor that contributed to their inability to maintain competitive positioning in the later innings.
The most consequential individual plays unfolded across the eighth through twelfth innings, where the DiamondIQ model registered the sharpest swings. Curtis Mead's double off Tobias Myers in the bottom of the eighth shifted win probability by 25.9 percentage points, the single largest play of the game, briefly keeping Washington's hopes alive. The eleventh inning then produced a sequence of high-leverage outcomes: Tyrone Taylor's groundout off Gus Varland added 21.1 percentage points for the Mets in the top half, while Daylen Lile's groundout off Huascar Brazobán swung 23.7 points back toward Washington in the bottom half. Joey Wiemer's fielder's choice, also off Brazobán, followed with a 20.4-point swing, and Drew Millas's sacrifice bunt off Brazobán in the tenth had earlier added 19.5 points for the Nationals, reflecting how tightly contested the game remained before New York's 12th-inning eruption.
Among individual performers, Joey Wiemer led all players by WPA at plus-47.1%, pairing that with a RE24 of plus-2.5, while Bo Bichette posted plus-44.7% WPA and the game's highest RE24 at plus-3.6, underscoring his impact on run-scoring situations. Curtis Mead rounded out the top three offensive contributors at plus-33.1% WPA. On the pitching side, Austin Warren led all pitchers with a plus-14.7% WPA, followed by Orlando Ribalta at plus-13.5%, with Mitchell Parker adding plus-4.2%. The model leans toward crediting the Mets' combination of late-inning offensive efficiency and bullpen stability as the defining factors in a game that appeared competitive deep into extra frames before New York's 12th-inning 10-run frame rendered the final margin decisive.