Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Cincinnati Reds 7-4 at Progressive Field on May 16, 2026, improving the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cleveland win from 55 percent before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. Cleveland built its lead methodically, scoring twice in the second, adding two more in the sixth, and two again in the seventh, while Cincinnati's most dangerous stretch came in the fifth inning but ultimately fell short of altering the game's outcome.

The pivotal sequence began in the top of the fifth, when Spencer Steer laced a double off Joey Cantillo that swung win probability 16.0 percent in Cincinnati's favor, and a subsequent walk to Sal Stewart added another 11.8 percent, giving the Reds genuine momentum entering the back half of the game. But Angel Martínez systematically dismantled that opening. His sixth-inning double off Luis Mey shifted win probability 15.0 percent toward Cleveland, and his seventh-inning home run off Pierce Johnson — a swing worth 30.0 percent in win probability — effectively closed the door on Cincinnati's comeback hopes. Martínez finished as the game's most impactful offensive player by a significant margin, posting a combined WPA of plus-44.9 percent alongside a RE24 of plus-2.2. Brayan Rocchio complemented that effort with a plus-22.2 percent WPA, anchored by his run-scoring single off Chris Paddack in the second inning that gave Cleveland its first runs of the night.

On the pitching side, Colin Holderman led Cleveland's relievers with a WPA of plus-10.9 percent, followed by Hunter Gaddis at plus-8.1 percent and Sam Moll at plus-6.1 percent, as the Cleveland bullpen secured the three-run victory. Cincinnati managed only five hits against Cleveland's staff and committed one error, while Cleveland's ten hits and clean fielding reflected the sharper execution that the DiamondIQ model ultimately rewarded with a final win probability of 100 percent.