Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers took a tightly contested road game at Target Field on May 16, 2026, defeating the Minnesota Twins 2-1 behind a dominant late-game relief performance and a pair of solo home runs. The DiamondIQ model opened with Minnesota as a strong favorite at 63% pre-game win probability, but the Twins never recovered from a Brewers offense that manufactured both of its runs via the long ball.

The game's scoring was spread thin across three separate innings, with Trevor Larnach providing Minnesota's only run on a solo home run off Logan Henderson in the bottom of the third, worth 11.1% in win probability added. Milwaukee answered in the fourth and again in the sixth, the latter coming on a Jackson Chourio home run off Connor Prielipp that swung win probability by 13.7% in the Brewers' favor. Chourio finished as one of the game's most impactful bats, posting a WPA of plus 18.5% and an RE24 of plus 1.1. The Twins threatened in the seventh when James Outman ripped a triple off Chad Patrick, a swing of 12.7% in Minnesota's favor, and Josh Bell followed in the eighth with a strikeout that cost the home side 12.9% in win probability. Patrick steadied himself and proved to be the evening's most decisive performer on the mound, finishing with a WPA of plus 24.1%.

The contest effectively ended in the bottom of the ninth when Tristan Gray lined out against Patrick in what the DiamondIQ model identified as the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 31.6%, extinguishing Minnesota's final threat and dropping the model's home win estimate to 0%. Gray led all position players with a WPA of plus 23.3% despite a RE24 of minus 0.6, a reflection of his contributions in suppressing high-leverage Twins opportunities. Eric Orze added 14.0% in pitching WPA out of the Milwaukee bullpen, and the Brewers' defense committed zero errors against a Minnesota club that finished with seven hits but could not convert them into runs when it mattered most.