Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies overcame a six-run third inning and a persistent Pittsburgh Pirates offense to win 11-9 at PNC Park on May 15, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model's estimate had put at a 58 percent pre-game home win probability for Pittsburgh. The Pirates threatened to put the game away early when Brandon Lowe's third-inning home run off Aaron Nola swung win probability 12.9 percent in Pittsburgh's favor, part of a six-run frame that gave the home side a commanding cushion. Philadelphia chipped away through the middle innings, scoring in the fourth, fifth, seventh, and ninth before delivering the knockout blow in the tenth, when the model's estimate had shifted entirely to zero percent for Pittsburgh.

The decisive damage came in extra innings and the ninth, driven by a cluster of high-leverage plate appearances. In the top of the ninth, Bryce Harper singled off Gregory Soto for a 14.9 percent win-probability swing and Kyle Schwarber drew a walk that added another 14.4 percent, the Phillies scratching across three runs to tie or take the lead. Then in the tenth, Brandon Marsh doubled off Dennis Santana for the single largest swing of the game at plus 31.3 percent, and Bryson Stott followed with a single worth another 19.4 percent, the two plays effectively closing the door on any Pittsburgh comeback. Philadelphia plated three runs in that frame to push the final margin to two.

Schwarber finished as the game's most impactful hitter by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a plus 29.8 percent WPA and plus 4.4 RE24 to lead all players. Marsh contributed plus 27.2 percent WPA despite a modest plus 0.4 RE24, his tenth-inning double proving the pivot point of the contest. Harper added plus 16.9 percent WPA with a plus 1.4 RE24. On the mound, Braxton Ashcraft led Pittsburgh's relievers with a plus 2.8 percent WPA, though the bullpen as a whole could not contain the late Philadelphia surge.