Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Colorado Rockies 3-1 at PNC Park on May 12, 2026, extending the DiamondIQ model's pre-game home win probability of 70% to a final estimate of 100%. Pittsburgh built its margin gradually, scoring in the first, fifth, and seventh innings while holding Colorado to a single run in the ninth against an otherwise locked-in performance from the Pirates' staff.

The most consequential single swing came in the bottom of the fifth, when Brandon Lowe singled off Michael Lorenzen for a +10.1% win-probability swing, the largest of the game. Lowe added to his impact in the seventh with another single off Victor Vodnik (+7.3%), though a subsequent pop out by Lowe in that same inning cost Pittsburgh 4.8 percentage points. Bryan Reynolds contributed meaningfully alongside Lowe in that seventh-inning sequence, and Colorado's best threats were neutralized early, including a Konnor Griffin ground into a double play in the second that erased 4.8% of Rockies win probability off Lorenzen. Hunter Goodman's pop out against Paul Skenes in the top of the seventh similarly deflated any late Colorado momentum.

Among individual performers, Lowe led Pittsburgh's offense by WPA at +6.6%, with Troy Johnston close behind at +6.4% and Oneil Cruz adding +5.0% with the game's best RE24 among position players at +1.1. On the mound, Paul Skenes was the defining force, posting a remarkable +33.3% win-probability contribution that underscored how thoroughly he controlled the Rockies lineup. Michael Lorenzen added +8.9% in relief support, and Seth Halvorsen chipped in +3.3% to close things out cleanly.