St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | 4 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 4-2 at Petco Park on May 9, 2026, completing a game that the DiamondIQ model's estimate entered at 54 percent in favor of the home side and closed at 100 percent. The contest was scoreless through three innings before either offense found traction, and the decisive burst came in the bottom of the fifth when Dustin May surrendered back-to-back damage. Fernando Tatis Jr. delivered a single that shifted win probability by 20.1 percent, the single largest swing of the game, and Ty France followed with a home run that added another 13.4 percent, turning a dormant game into a three-run San Diego lead in an inning.
St. Louis made two separate pushes but could not sustain either. Nathan Church opened the Cardinals' scoring in the top of the fourth with a double off Randy Vásquez, a swing worth 11.0 percent in win probability that stood as the highest-impact Cardinals moment of the night. In the top of the eighth, Iván Herrera extended that threat with a double against Adrian Morejon that moved the needle 17.2 percent, and the Cardinals pulled within 3-2. The Padres answered immediately in the bottom half when Manny Machado hit a home run off Matt Svanson, a 13.6 percent swing that effectively ended the contest.
On the individual ledger, Church led all batters with a WPA of plus-16.1 and an RE24 of plus-1.3 despite being on the losing side, while Tatis finished at plus-15.1 with an RE24 of plus-1.0 to pace San Diego's offense. Herrera contributed plus-14.5 WPA and plus-1.2 RE24 in a strong showing despite the Cardinals' defeat. Mason Miller was the top-credited pitcher at plus-13.1 WPA, followed by Randy Vásquez at plus-7.5 and Jason Adam at plus-7.2, as the Padres bullpen secured the final runs of the game. San Diego collected five hits to St. Louis's seven but committed no errors against one for the Cardinals, and the model leans toward those clean defensive innings as a meaningful factor in how the Padres protected their lead late.