Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 6-3 at Busch Stadium on May 4, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 61 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. St. Louis built its advantage steadily, with the fourth inning serving as the pivotal frame. Iván Herrera delivered the single most impactful play of the game, a double off Chad Patrick that shifted win probability by 14.6 percent in St. Louis's favor. Nathan Church added to the damage in that same inning with a double of his own off Patrick, worth another 5.8 percent swing, capping a three-run fourth that effectively put the Cardinals in command. Patrick was also tagged in the second inning when JJ Wetherholt singled to begin building St. Louis's early foothold.

Milwaukee's most damaging moments came when opportunities were squandered. Luis Rengifo grounded out in the top of the fourth, a sequence that cost the Brewers 7.0 percent in win probability against Kyle Leahy at a moment when they still had a chance to get on the board. William Contreras compounded the situation in the seventh, grounding into a double play off JoJo Romero that erased another 8.3 percent of Milwaukee's remaining equity. The Brewers finished with 11 hits but never managed to convert that production into consistent scoring, plating just one run in the sixth and two in a meaningless ninth.

Herrera paced all position players with a plus-14.0 percent WPA and plus-1.5 RE24, confirming his fourth-inning double as the decisive blow of the contest. Jackson Chourio and Jake Bauers also contributed positively for St. Louis, finishing at plus-7.1 and plus-7.0 percent WPA respectively. On the mound, Kyle Leahy led all pitchers with plus-11.5 percent WPA, with JoJo Romero close behind at plus-9.8 percent, as the Cardinals bullpen held Milwaukee at bay through the middle innings and preserved what the offense had constructed early.