Chicago White Sox at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the Chicago White Sox 4-3 at Petco Park on May 3, 2026, completing a come-from-behind victory that the DiamondIQ model had handicapped at 67 percent in favor of the home side before first pitch, a figure that ultimately reached 100 percent by the game's end. San Diego's offense was largely dormant through the first three innings before erupting in the fourth, when Miguel Andujar and Manny Machado hit back-to-back home runs off Anthony Kay, each swing adding roughly 12 percent to San Diego's win probability and staking the Padres to a 3-1 lead through six innings.

The pivotal moment came in the top of the seventh, when Derek Hill delivered a two-run home run off Adrian Morejon that swung the win probability by plus-22.7 percent in Chicago's favor, erasing the Padres' lead and giving the White Sox a 3-3 tie. That was the single largest win-probability shift of the game and momentarily put the home side in a precarious position. San Diego responded in the bottom of the eighth, when Jackson Merrill singled off Bryan Hudson to extend the inning, then Xander Bogaerts followed with a go-ahead single that added plus-17.8 percent to the Padres' win probability and plated what proved to be the decisive run.

On the mound, Mason Miller was the most impactful arm in the game by win probability, contributing plus-15.2 percent, while Jason Adam added another plus-10.6 percent as San Diego's relievers locked down the final outs. Hill finished as the top individual performer by WPA at plus-22.7 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.6, though his heroics were ultimately undone by the Padres' eighth-inning rally. Bogaerts finished second among position players at plus-13.5 percent WPA, with his go-ahead single standing as the decisive blow in a tight, low-scoring contest.