MLB Recap · May 2, 2026

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

CIN7
Final
PIT17

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CIN2100120107110
PIT55050002-17190

The Story

Pittsburgh pulled away early and never looked back, handing Cincinnati a lopsided 17-7 defeat at PNC Park on May 2, 2026. The Pirates erupted for five runs in each of the first two innings, effectively ending the contest before it had a chance to develop into anything competitive. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Pittsburgh a 46 percent chance of winning at home, but by the final out that estimate had climbed to 100 percent, a reflection of just how thoroughly the Pirates dismantled the Reds across nine innings. Pittsburgh finished with 19 hits compared to Cincinnati's 11, and neither team committed an error.

The decisive moments came in waves during the opening frames. In the bottom of the first, Henry Davis delivered a groundout that added 7.3 percent to Pittsburgh's win probability off Rhett Lowder, capping a five-run burst that set the tone immediately. The bottom of the second brought more damage, highlighted by Oneil Cruz's groundout off Sam Moll, which represented the single biggest win-probability swing of the game at plus 12.4 percent. Nick Gonzales added to the carnage with a walk off Connor Phillips worth 4.5 percent. Cincinnati briefly showed signs of life when Will Benson launched a home run off Carmen Mlodzinski in the top of the second for a 4.1 percent positive swing, but Sal Stewart's strikeout in the same half-inning carried a negative 10.8 percent impact, underscoring how thoroughly the Reds squandered their opportunities.

Among individual performers, Cruz led all batters with a WPA of plus 12.3 percent, while Davis posted plus 7.7 percent and Gonzales added plus 6.2 percent with a RE24 of positive 1.5. On the mound, Carmen Mlodzinski was Pittsburgh's top contributor by WPA at plus 4.8 percent despite surrendering the Benson home run. The Pirates' four-run advantage in the fourth inning further buried any realistic path back for Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh coasted through the final frames to secure the comfortable ten-run victory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CIN bats firstFinalPIT win %CIN win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 46.2% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Oneil Cruz Groundout
Bot 2nd · off Sam Moll
+12.4%
Sal Stewart Strikeout
Top 2nd · off Carmen Mlodzinski
-10.8%
Henry Davis Groundout
Bot 1st · off Rhett Lowder
+7.3%
Nick Gonzales Walk
Bot 2nd · off Connor Phillips
+4.5%
Will Benson Home Run
Top 2nd · off Carmen Mlodzinski
+4.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Oneil Cruz+12.3%-0.2 RE24
Henry Davis+7.7%-1.8 RE24
Nick Gonzales+6.2%+1.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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