MLB Recap · May 1, 2026

Chicago White Sox at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

CWS8
Final
SD2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CWS060010010880
SD000000020260

The Story

The Chicago White Sox handed the San Diego Padres an 8-2 defeat at Petco Park on May 1, 2026, overcoming a pregame environment where the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave the home side a 68 percent chance of winning. That number collapsed to zero by game's end, driven almost entirely by a six-run second inning that effectively ended the contest before it began. The Padres had a chance to answer in the bottom half of the second, but Bryce Johnson's groundout off Noah Schultz represented the single most damaging moment of the night in win-probability terms, swinging the needle 15.9 percent against San Diego and extinguishing any early hope of a rally.

The decisive sequence in the top of the second came at the expense of Germán Márquez. Miguel Vargas delivered the most impactful offensive play of the game, a groundout that nonetheless carried a win-probability swing of plus 14.9 percent in context, reflecting the run-scoring chaos already unfolding around it. Munetaka Murakami followed with a home run that added another 8.5 percent to the White Sox's win probability, and Chase Meidroth's double earlier in the frame contributed 4.9 percent of its own. By WPA, Vargas finished as the top offensive contributor at plus 14.7 percent, with Murakami close behind at plus 8.3 percent and a run-environment figure of plus 2.8 RE24. Colson Montgomery added plus 6.5 percent to round out the White Sox's most productive performers at the plate.

Noah Schultz was the story on the mound, accumulating plus 28.0 percent in win probability added to lead all pitchers in the game by a wide margin. He navigated early Padres threats, including a first-inning groundout by Ty France that swung 6.1 percent against San Diego, and kept the home side from mounting any meaningful answer to the White Sox's second-inning outburst. Wandy Peralta and Jordan Hicks each contributed neutral WPA figures in relief. Chicago tacked on single runs in the fifth and eighth innings to finish with eight, while San Diego's two runs came in the eighth, long after the DiamondIQ model had moved entirely off the Padres' chances.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CWS bats firstFinalSD win %CWS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 67.8% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Bryce Johnson Groundout
Bot 2nd · off Noah Schultz
-15.9%
Miguel Vargas Groundout
Top 2nd · off Germán Márquez
+14.9%
Munetaka Murakami Home Run
Top 2nd · off Germán Márquez
+8.5%
Ty France Groundout
Bot 1st · off Noah Schultz
-6.1%
Chase Meidroth Double
Top 2nd · off Germán Márquez
+4.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Miguel Vargas+14.7%-0.9 RE24
Munetaka Murakami+8.3%+2.8 RE24
Colson Montgomery+6.5%+0.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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