The Washington Nationals routed the New York Mets 14-2 at Citi Field on April 29, 2026, in a game that was never particularly close after the early innings. The DiamondIQ model entered with the Mets holding a 42% win probability, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out as Washington sent 15 men to the plate with no errors and controlled both sides of the ball throughout the afternoon.
The decisive sequence came in the fourth inning, when the Nationals turned a competitive game into a rout. Brady House delivered the single most impactful swing of the day, a home run off Sean Manaea that shifted win probability 11.0 percentage points in Washington's favor. Earlier in that same inning, Curtis Mead was hit by a pitch from Manaea, adding 6.5 points of win probability, and once David Peterson entered, James Wood drew a walk worth 8.2 points and Joey Wiemer singled for another 6.9 points, compounding the damage in what became a seven-run frame. Washington added three more runs in the seventh and one in the ninth to reach the final margin. The only notable Mets offensive moment came in the bottom of the third, when Juan Soto launched a home run off Cade Cavalli for a 10.5-point swing, though it ultimately amounted to little given the broader trajectory.
Among individual performers, Soto led all players by batting WPA at plus-11.8%, with a RE24 of plus-1.7, while House finished at plus-10.0% WPA and led the group with a RE24 of plus-2.3. James Wood also contributed meaningfully at plus-6.4% WPA and plus-2.0 RE24. On the mound, Cade Cavalli was the top-graded pitcher by WPA at plus-6.1%, despite surrendering the Soto home run, as his overall performance held Washington's offense in check in the innings he worked. The DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected a game that was effectively decided by the middle innings, with the Nationals winning comfortably on both the scoreboard and the probability ledger.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.