The Philadelphia Phillies overcame an 83 percent pre-game DiamondIQ model home win probability for Atlanta and erased a deficit to win 8-5 in ten innings at Truist Park on April 25, 2026. The Braves held the advantage through much of the middle frames, with Austin Riley's fourth-inning double off Zack Wheeler delivering the single largest swing in Atlanta's favor on the night, adding 24.1 percent to the home team's win probability. Michael Harris II kept that momentum alive with a sixth-inning single off Tanner Banks that added another 17.1 percent, and the Braves appeared well-positioned to hold on heading into the late innings.
Philadelphia's comeback unfolded in decisive bursts over the final three frames. Kyle Schwarber ignited the rally with a triple off Dylan Lee in the eighth that swung win probability 16.1 percent in the Phillies' direction, then authored the defining sequence of the night in the tenth inning. Schwarber's walk against José Suarez added 27.8 percent to Philadelphia's win probability, and Bryce Harper followed with a single off the same reliever that tacked on another 19.9 percent, fueling a four-run frame that put the game away. Philadelphia scored four times in the tenth to turn a deficit into an 8-5 final.
Schwarber finished as the game's most impactful player by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, accumulating plus-39.2 percent in total WPA alongside a RE24 of plus-1.7. Harper was nearly as influential at plus-27.3 percent WPA and plus-1.6 RE24, while Brandon Marsh added plus-12.6 percent on the offensive side. On the mound, Zack Wheeler contributed plus-21.5 percent WPA despite surrendering the Riley double, with Orion Kerkering and José Alvarado providing valuable relief contributions at plus-8.5 and plus-7.2 percent, respectively.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.