The Chicago White Sox erased a 1-0 deficit and pulled away late to defeat the Arizona Diamondbacks 4-1 at Chase Field on April 23, 2026, handing Arizona a loss despite the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving the home side a 69 percent chance of winning. Chicago finished with 10 hits and no errors while Arizona managed 8 hits of their own but could not convert them into runs against a White Sox pitching staff that held firm through the middle innings.
The decisive swing came in the top of the ninth, when Andrew Benintendi connected on a home run off Paul Sewald that shifted win probability by 38.5 percentage points in Chicago's favor, turning a tight one-run game into a comfortable 4-1 cushion. That single swing was the defining moment of the night and accounts for the bulk of Benintendi's final WPA line of plus-35.8 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.0. Earlier, in the top of the third, Miguel Vargas had provided a positive nudge with a single off Michael Soroka worth plus-10.5 percent, though Everson Pereira's double play in the same inning swung things back toward Arizona by minus-14.1 percent. On the Arizona side, Corbin Carroll grounded into a double play in the sixth off Davis Martin, a minus-10.2 percent swing, and Jose Fernandez struck out in the seventh against Grant Taylor at minus-9.3 percent, two moments that further drained whatever offensive momentum the Diamondbacks had generated.
Chicago's pitching staff was the quiet backbone of the victory. Davis Martin led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-30.2 percent, followed by Grant Taylor at plus-19.6 percent and Kevin Ginkel at plus-13.6 percent, a collective effort that kept Arizona's run total at one through nine innings. Colson Montgomery also contributed offensively, finishing with a WPA of plus-11.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.1. The DiamondIQ model's final estimate settled at zero percent for Arizona, a reflection of how completely Chicago controlled the game's closing stages despite trailing for much of the contest.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.