The Minnesota Twins took down the New York Mets 5-3 at Citi Field on April 21, 2026, completing a comeback that flipped the game's probability landscape entirely. The DiamondIQ model opened with the Mets holding a 32 percent home win probability, but that figure fell to zero by the final out. New York struck first and appeared to seize control in the bottom of the third when Francisco Lindor connected on a home run off Simeon Woods Richardson, a swing that added 22.5 percentage points to the Mets' win probability and gave them a 3-0 lead through five innings. Minnesota, however, answered with a sustained offensive response that erased that advantage over the final four frames.
The Twins began their rally in the top of the sixth when Byron Buxton launched a home run off Nolan McLean, a plus-18.5 percent win-probability swing that signaled the game had turned. Luke Keaschall kept the pressure on in the seventh with a single off McLean that added another 13.3 points of win probability, and Minnesota pushed further ahead in the ninth. Kody Clemens executed a sacrifice bunt off Devin Williams that shifted win probability by 13.4 percentage points, extending the Twins' cushion. The final nail came from the mound, where Cole Sands struck out Tyrone Taylor to close the bottom of the ninth, a sequence worth 14.4 points of win probability preserved for Minnesota.
Among the top performers by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, Lindor led all batters with a plus-18.6 percent WPA and a 2.2 RE24, though his contributions came in a losing effort. Clemens posted a plus-18.1 percent WPA alongside a 0.9 RE24, and Keaschall finished at plus-16.3 percent WPA with a 1.4 RE24, both instrumental in the Twins' offensive construction. On the pitching side, Huascar Brazobán led Minnesota's bullpen contributors with a plus-17.0 percent WPA, supported by Justin Topa at plus-8.3 and Austin Warren at plus-5.7, a trio that collectively secured the road victory after the Twins' lineup erased the early three-run deficit.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.