The San Diego Padres defeated the Colorado Rockies 1-0 at Coors Field on April 21, 2026, handing Colorado a shutout loss in a game the DiamondIQ model gave the home team just a 24 percent chance of winning before first pitch. San Diego's lone run came in the top of the sixth inning, when Manny Machado drew a walk off Chase Dollander that shifted win probability by 12.6 percent in the Padres' favor. That single run proved to be all San Diego would need, as the Padres' pitching staff held Colorado to just three hits across nine innings.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the ninth, where the DiamondIQ model's estimate swung dramatically in a matter of outs. Hunter Goodman's flyout to end the game represented the single biggest win-probability swing of the night, a 31.6 percent shift in San Diego's favor off Adrian Morejon, sealing the shutout. Earlier in that same inning, Edouard Julien's strikeout off Morejon had already moved the needle 8.5 percent toward the Padres. Colorado's best moment came in the eighth, when Willi Castro's flyout against Jason Adam represented a 12.9 percent swing away from the Rockies, extinguishing what little hope remained.
On the individual ledger, Goodman led all position players with a 33.3 percent WPA despite producing negative run expectancy at minus 0.1 RE24, a reflection of how his outs came in the highest-leverage moments against San Diego. Machado finished at plus 6.6 percent WPA and plus 0.5 RE24, contributing meaningfully to the game's only run-scoring threat. On the mound, Chase Dollander led all pitchers with a 26.6 percent WPA, followed closely by Randy Vasquez at 26.3 percent and Jason Adam at 23.3 percent, a trio of performances that collectively suffocated a Colorado lineup that managed just three hits and committed one error in a loss that dropped the Rockies' in-game win probability to zero by the final out.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.