The Athletics walked off the Chicago White Sox 7-6 in eleven innings on April 18, 2026, at Sutter Health Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 72 percent pre-game home win probability to a final certainty of 100 percent. The game turned on a series of late swings in either direction before Oakland ultimately seized control. Chicago had staked out a significant advantage after a five-run second inning put them ahead, but the Athletics chipped away with single runs in the third, fifth, and sixth before Nick Kurtz's seventh-inning home run off Jordan Leasure swung win probability 26.1 points toward Oakland and knotted the game, forcing extra innings.
The eleventh inning proved to be the decisive frame, though it cut both ways. Luisangel Acuña's single off Jack Perkins in the top half added 32.0 percentage points to Chicago's win probability, representing the single largest positive batting swing of the game, and briefly put the White Sox in front. However, Everson Pereira's subsequent strikeout against Perkins cost Chicago 19.2 points of win probability, leaving the door open. In the bottom of the eleventh, Denzel Clarke's sacrifice bunt off Lucas Sims moved the ghost runner into scoring position, adding 19.5 points of win probability, and Oakland completed the comeback to claim the walk-off victory.
Munetaka Murakami finished as the top performer by WPA at plus-35.8 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.8, leading all batters in both categories despite Oakland's deficit through much of the contest. Acuña and Zack Gelof each posted plus-1.3 RE24 alongside their significant WPA contributions, with Gelof's tenth-inning single off Jordan Hicks having added 29.5 points to Oakland's win probability to help extend the game. On the mound, Erick Fedde led all pitchers with a plus-24.8 percent WPA, supported by Joel Kuhnel at plus-11.6 and Bryan Hudson at plus-10.9 as Oakland's bullpen held Chicago at bay through the late innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.