MLB Recap · April 16, 2026

San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

SF3
Final
CIN0

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SF000000300360
CIN000000000011

The Story

The San Francisco Giants shut out the Cincinnati Reds 3-0 at Great American Ball Park on April 16, 2026, holding Cincinnati to a single hit across nine innings while erasing what the DiamondIQ model estimated as a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for the Reds down to zero. The game was scoreless through six frames before San Francisco broke it open in a decisive seventh inning that produced all three of its runs and accounted for the largest win-probability swings of the afternoon.

The seventh inning unfolded as a sequence of compounding damage against the Cincinnati bullpen. Matt Chapman's double off Brock Burke was the single most impactful offensive play of the game, shifting win probability 18.1 percent in San Francisco's favor. Jung Hoo Lee followed with a single off Burke worth another 13.0 percent, and Casey Schmitt added a single against Connor Phillips that pushed the Giants' advantage further, contributing 10.3 percent to the probability swing. The Reds had actually had chances to alter the game's trajectory earlier, but Cincinnati squandered them twice on the ground. Elly De La Cruz grounded into a double play in the sixth inning off Landen Roupp, a swing of minus 12.2 percent for the home side, and TJ Friedl hit into a similar fate in the third, costing the Reds 7.9 percent in win probability.

On the pitching side, Landen Roupp was the game's most impactful performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, contributing plus 31.0 percent in win probability, largely by inducing those two critical double plays and keeping Cincinnati's offense in check through the middle innings. Chase Burns added plus 27.3 percent, and Ryan Walker contributed plus 6.3 percent as the Giants finished off a combined one-hit shutout. Among position players, Jung Hoo Lee led all hitters with plus 15.9 percent WPA and plus 1.3 RE24, while Chapman finished at plus 13.7 percent WPA, with P.J. Higgins rounding out the top three offensive contributors at plus 8.4 percent.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SF bats firstFinalCIN win %SF win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Matt Chapman Double
Top 7th · off Brock Burke
+18.1%
Jung Hoo Lee Single
Top 7th · off Brock Burke
+13.0%
Elly De La Cruz Grounded Into DP
Bot 6th · off Landen Roupp
-12.2%
Casey Schmitt Single
Top 7th · off Connor Phillips
+10.3%
TJ Friedl Grounded Into DP
Bot 3rd · off Landen Roupp
-7.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Jung Hoo Lee+15.9%+1.3 RE24
Matt Chapman+13.7%+0.4 RE24
P.J. Higgins+8.4%+0.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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