The Toronto Blue Jays rallied from a three-run deficit to defeat the Milwaukee Brewers 9-7 in ten innings at American Family Field on April 14, 2026. Milwaukee had taken a 3-0 lead in the bottom of the fourth and held it deep into the game, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Brewers victory sitting comfortably above 50 percent entering the ninth. That advantage evaporated rapidly, as Toronto mounted consecutive-inning comebacks to steal the road win.
The game's most consequential sequence began in the bottom of the ninth, when Brandon Lockridge delivered a double off Jeff Hoffman that shifted win probability by 46.2 percentage points in Milwaukee's favor, bringing the Brewers to the brink of a walk-off. Instead, Toronto answered in the top of the tenth against Grant Anderson, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. lacing a double that swung win probability 33.7 points toward the Blue Jays, followed immediately by a Myles Straw double worth another 28.4 points. That two-run cushion proved decisive, as Toronto scored three in the tenth to go ahead 9-7. Toronto's rally in the top of the ninth had already set the stage, with Davis Schneider's double off Trevor Megill shifting the needle 30.2 points and Kazuma Okamoto adding a single worth 24.0 points to pull the Blue Jays even.
By final WPA, Lockridge led all batters despite being on the losing side, finishing at plus-44.4 percent, while Guerrero Jr. topped Toronto's lineup at plus-41.4 percent with a game-high RE24 of 1.4 among position players. Schneider added plus-30.0 percent. On the pitching side, Mason Fluharty led relievers at plus-8.6 percent, edging Angel Zerpa at plus-8.5 percent and DL Hall at plus-7.8 percent. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at zero percent for Milwaukee, a complete inversion from the 54 percent home win probability it carried before first pitch.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.