The Pittsburgh Pirates routed the Washington Nationals 16-5 on April 13, 2026, at PNC Park, a game that was never truly in doubt after the early innings. The DiamondIQ model entered with Pittsburgh holding a 54% pre-game win probability, but by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%, reflecting a dominant performance that left little drama on the field.
The Pirates seized control in the second inning, a frame that proved decisive by win-probability impact. Bryan Reynolds delivered a single off Cade Cavalli that shifted win probability by 7.8 points, followed by a Brandon Lowe single worth 5.8 points, an Oneil Cruz walk adding 7.0 points, and a Henry Davis walk contributing another 6.4 points. The cumulative damage in that inning buried the Nationals early. Spencer Horwitz then extended the lead with a home run off Paxton Schultz in the third inning, a swing worth 6.0 win-probability points that closed off any realistic path back for Washington. Pittsburgh added ten more runs in the sixth inning, turning a competitive deficit into an outright rout, with the final line reading 16 runs on 16 hits and no errors for the Pirates against 5 runs on 8 hits and 1 error for the Nationals.
Individually, Paul Skenes was the standout performer on the mound, contributing 12.5 win-probability points to the Pittsburgh effort. At the plate, Brandon Lowe led all batters with a RE24 of plus-5.3, while Oneil Cruz posted a RE24 of plus-3.1 and Bryan Reynolds added plus-3.0, each accumulating meaningful run-environment value that reflected their roles in building Pittsburgh's commanding advantage.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.