The Athletics handed the New York Mets an 11-6 defeat at Citi Field on April 11, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had pegged as a 54 percent pre-game home win probability and reducing it to zero by the final out. Oakland built its case methodically, scoring two in the second, five in the third, and then delivered a decisive four-run eighth to seal the outcome, while New York's late pushes in the fifth, sixth, and seventh innings never generated enough swing to alter the game's trajectory.
The two most pivotal sequences by win-probability impact came in the third inning and again in the eighth. In the third, Carlos Cortes connected on a home run off Kodai Senga that shifted win probability 14.2 percent in Oakland's favor, and Tyler Soderstrom followed with his own home run off Senga just moments later, adding another 12.4 percent swing. Those two blows formed the spine of the Athletics' five-run third and put the Mets on their heels early. The eighth inning proved equally damaging: Soderstrom launched another home run, this time off Luke Weaver, for the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 16.6 percent, and Shea Langeliers followed with a single off Weaver worth an additional 15.2 percent. Jorge Polanco's home run off Justin Sterner in the bottom of the seventh, worth 15.8 percent, represented New York's best moment, but it arrived too late and with too little support.
Soderstrom finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer, accumulating a combined win-probability added of plus 27.2 percent and a run expectancy above average of plus 3.7, driven by his two-home-run effort spanning the third and eighth innings. Langeliers contributed plus 20.2 percent WPA, while Bo Bichette added plus 17.2 percent WPA and plus 3.3 RE24 to round out Oakland's top performers. On the pitching side, Craig Kimbrel led Athletics relievers with plus 4.2 percent WPA, and the DiamondIQ model favors Oakland's performance on this night as thorough and well-distributed across multiple innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.