The San Francisco Giants defeated the Baltimore Orioles 6-3 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 10, 2026, handing the home side a loss that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Baltimore win at 0% by game's end, down from a 54% pre-game probability. San Francisco scored first in the third inning and built a lead that Baltimore was never fully able to overcome, with the Giants adding three insurance runs in the seventh to pull away decisively.
The game's most consequential sequence came in the seventh inning, where Casey Schmitt delivered a double off Nick Raquet that shifted win probability by plus 11.7 percentage points, the single largest swing of the night. Jung Hoo Lee followed with a home run off Raquet worth plus 9.5 percentage points, effectively closing the door on any Baltimore comeback. Earlier, Willy Adames had done significant damage against Shane Baz, launching a home run in the third inning for a plus 10.9 percentage point swing, then adding a double in the fourth worth plus 9.6 percentage points. Baltimore's brightest moment came in the bottom of the fourth, when Leody Taveras doubled off Landen Roupp for a plus 11.5 percentage point swing, but the Orioles could not sustain that pressure.
Schmitt finished as the top performer by WPA at plus 23.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.2, while Adames contributed plus 19.5 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.6. On the pitching side, Landen Roupp led all pitchers with a plus 22.3 percent WPA despite surrendering the Taveras double, limiting the damage enough to preserve the Giants' advantage through the middle innings. Adley Rutschman provided Baltimore's most productive offensive contribution at plus 12.0 percent WPA, though a two-run ninth inning proved far too little for the Orioles to close a deficit that had grown well beyond reach.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.